18 Mar, 2024

Spot Ethereum ETFs May Bring Up to $45 Billion of Inflows if Approved

Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds could still be approved by their initial deadline of May 23, according to Standard Chartered Bank, despite skepticism expressed by other commentators.

"My view is still that they will be approved on May 23. Although I note this is now a non-consensus view," Geoffrey Kendrick, head of forex and crypto research at Standard Chartered Bank, told The Block in a statement. "If the ETFs are approved, I estimate $15-45 billion of inflows will come in the first 12 months, using the same logic as I applied to the BTC ETF inflows."

Earlier this year, Kendrick predicted that spot Ethereum ETFs would likely be approved on May 23 primarily because the Securities and Exchange Commission has not classified ETH as a security in its legal actions against crypto companies. Now, the recent announcement by the London Stock Exchange that it will accept applications for exchange-traded notes backed by BTC and ETH in Q2 "increases the likelihood that the US SEC will approve ETH ETFs on 23 May," Kendrick said in a report on Monday.

Kendrick acknowledged that most commentators disagree that the SEC will approve spot Ethereum ETFs on May 23. Last week, Bloomberg senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas lowered his expectations of a spot ether ETF getting approved in May to 30%, down from 70% in January. The Polymarket predictions platform also decreased its expectation to 28% from 74%.

Kendrick maintains optimism regarding the May 23 deadline and anticipates substantial inflows to ETH driven by ETFs, mirroring the pattern observed with BTC ETFs following their approval.

"We estimate that spot ETFs will drive inflows of 2.39-9.15 million ETH in the first 12 months after approval," he said in the report, which equates to roughly between $15 billion and $45 billion.

Ether price could reach $8,000 by end-2024 and $14,000 by end-2025

According to Kendrick, if spot Ethereum ETFs get approved in May, the price of ETH could reach $8,000 sooner than previously expected. He now anticipates the price hitting $8,000 by the end of 2024, two years earlier than he previously predicted. Kendrick has also set an ETH price target of $14,000 by the end of 2025.

"Specifically, we think ETH would keep pace with BTC, with the current 5.4% price ratio holding for the rest of 2024," he said in the report.

Given that Standard Chartered now sees BTC reaching the $150,000 level by the end of 2024, this would imply a level of $8,000 for ETH, he said. In 2025, the bank sees the ETH-to-BTC price ratio rising back to the 7% level that prevailed for much of 2021-22. Kendrick added that his estimated BTC price level of $200,000 at the end of 2025 would imply an ETH price of $14,000.

Earlier Monday, in a separate note, Standard Chartered said the bitcoin price could even reach $250,000 at some point in 2025 if strong spot bitcoin ETF inflows continue and/or forex reserve managers start buying bitcoin this year.

"Coincidentally, our estimated inflows for BTC and ETH are similar as a percentage of outstanding coins in circulation," Kendrick said in today's ETH report. "For BTC, our estimated inflows range from 2.2-6.7% of total coins in circulation; for ETH, the equivalent percentages are 2.0-7.6%. We are comfortable with the ETH ranges being slightly wider due to ETH's marginally higher volatility."

Ethereum's Dencun upgrade

Ethereum's recent Dencun upgrade, which sharply lowers transaction fees on Layer 2 networks, also makes Ethereum more competitive, according to Kendrick.

He expects the "bridge" category to increase in importance, given the Dencun upgrade. Kendrick also anticipates that further in the future, Ethereum's use cases will evolve towards gaming and tokenization, adding significant demand via the existing NFT and DeFi channels, respectively.

"Importantly, this should provide 'proof of concept' examples in which real-world industries come on-chain to exploit the benefits of Ethereum over their existing setups," he said. "We expect significant developments on these fronts by 2025-26."

20 Mar, 2024

Lao Government to Raise Value-Added Tax Rate to 10%

The Lao government has announced plans to raise the value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7 percent to 10 percent as part of efforts to enhance state budget revenue and support economic and social development in the country.However, the decree issued on March 19 lacks specific details regarding the implementation date of the proposed increase, pending approval from various sectors of the Lao government.“The decree is currently awaiting a record letter from the Lao National Assembly. Following this, the Department of Taxation will also seek a letter of record from the Ministry of Justice,” a government source says. “The decree will come into effect 15 days after these approvals are obtained.”Under the revised plan, the VAT rate of 10 percent will be applicable to a range of transactions, including imports, goods, general services, mineral imports, and supply, as well as electricity usage.The adjustment would restore the VAT rate to its original level, which was in place from 2010 to 2021. The reduction in VAT rate, initiated from 1 January, 2022, was part of the Lao government’s efforts to stimulate economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.With the expected increase in VAT, local residents are currently concerned about the potential rise in the prices of goods and services. This worry is compounded by the increasing inflation rate, raising concerns about affordability.“The cost of everything is increasing, including essential goods, water, and VAT, while salaries remain unchanged,” one social media user wrote, expressing concern about whether their family will be able to afford housing amidst these financial challenges.Regarding salary adjustments, it’s reported that many companies in Vientiane are yet to raise their minimum wages, despite the government’s approved increase in 2023. Only 10 percent of companies in the capital city have complied with the mandated wage guidelines.

Read more

15 Mar, 2024

Binance Coin's Surge Amidst Ethereum's Struggles

Within the past 24 hours, Ethereum has witnessed a decline of 5.2%, settling around $3,800. This downturn, though subtle, is prompting concerns among investors.Previously on a trajectory poised to surpass the $5,000 mark, Ethereum now faces a different scenario. Investors grapple with the reality of a stalled ascent, prompting cautious adjustments in their strategies. This shift underscores growing apprehension within the community regarding Ethereum's resilience amidst market turbulence.Analysis and Market Dynamics of Ethereum and BitcoinA closer look at Ethereum's recent numbers reveals what experts consider a natural correction. After a period of sustained growth marked by successive highs, the price now retraces towards support levels. While pullbacks are deemed healthy for a bull market, the extent of Ethereum's decline raises concerns about its stability amidst market fluctuations.Technical indicators, including pivotal moving averages, undergo retesting, signaling a cooling-off phase. Decreased trading volume mirrors broader market anxieties, with fears of a significant downturn prompting investors to adopt a defensive stance, contributing to the ongoing stagnation.In parallel, Bitcoin's journey towards the psychological $80,000 threshold offers little solace amidst Ethereum's struggles. Despite its recent climb, Bitcoin encounters resistance near the $74,000 zone, triggering profit-taking and subsequent retracements. This consolidation hints at an imminent market shift, with potential implications for Ethereum's trajectory.Binance Coin's Surge Amid Ethereum's ChallengesAmidst these developments, attention turns to Binance Coin (BNB), often overlooked amidst the Ethereum and Bitcoin fervor. Despite its fundamental utility and the strength of the Binance ecosystem, BNB experiences a surge of approximately 40%, signaling resilience.Chart analysis indicates BNB's robust bullish momentum, with higher lows and higher highs suggesting a strong uptrend. Recent rallies to uncharted territory near $600 demonstrate investor confidence and exploratory valuation pursuits. However, amidst the euphoria, caution is warranted as BNB grapples with dynamic support and resistance levels.The surge in trading volume accompanying BNB's rally signifies genuine investor interest, distinguishing it from speculative spikes witnessed elsewhere in the market. As BNB charts its course, maintaining a keen eye on support and resistance levels will be essential in navigating volatility and sustaining upward momentum.The Significance of the Dencun Hard Fork for Ethereum's FutureFurthermore, amidst Ethereum's struggles, the recent Dencun hard fork marks a significant milestone. Hailed as the most substantial upgrade since the Merge, the Dencun upgrade was successfully implemented on the mainnet on March 13. While attention has focused on anticipated transaction fee reductions for layer-2 scaling networks, experts argue that the primary advantage lies in fee stabilization rather than mere reduction.Despite the positive outlook for Ethereum’s future scalability and functionality, the immediate market response to the Dencun upgrade was somewhat subdued. Ethereum's price experienced a modest decline of 2.44% in the 24 hours following the upgrade, trading at $3,956 according to CoinMarketCap data. This minor dip in price may be attributed to short-term market dynamics and does not necessarily reflect the long-term potential of the network upgrade.The Dencun hard fork represents a significant leap forward for Ethereum, ushering in a new era of scalability and fee stabilization. While much attention has been focused on the immediate impact of fee reductions for layer-2 solutions, the long-term benefits of increased network capacity and scalability are expected to drive Ethereum’s growth and adoption in the years to come. With further upgrades and enhancements on the horizon, Ethereum is well-positioned to maintain its status as a leading blockchain platform for decentralized applications and digital assets.

Read more

Transforming Currency Through Innovation

FOLLOW LADT ON SOCIAL

Contact Us
Copyright © 2022 - 2025 Lao National Digital Technology Group. All rights reserved.