18 Mar, 2024

Spot Ethereum ETFs May Bring Up to $45 Billion of Inflows if Approved

Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds could still be approved by their initial deadline of May 23, according to Standard Chartered Bank, despite skepticism expressed by other commentators."My view is still that they will be approved on May 23. Although I note this is now a non-consensus view," Geoffrey Kendrick, head of forex and crypto research at Standard Chartered Bank, told The Block in a statement. "If the ETFs are approved, I estimate $15-45 billion of inflows will come in the first 12 months, using the same logic as I applied to the BTC ETF inflows."Earlier this year, Kendrick predicted that spot Ethereum ETFs would likely be approved on May 23 primarily because the Securities and Exchange Commission has not classified ETH as a security in its legal actions against crypto companies. Now, the recent announcement by the London Stock Exchange that it will accept applications for exchange-traded notes backed by BTC and ETH in Q2 "increases the likelihood that the US SEC will approve ETH ETFs on 23 May," Kendrick said in a report on Monday.Kendrick acknowledged that most commentators disagree that the SEC will approve spot Ethereum ETFs on May 23. Last week, Bloomberg senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas lowered his expectations of a spot ether ETF getting approved in May to 30%, down from 70% in January. The Polymarket predictions platform also decreased its expectation to 28% from 74%.Kendrick maintains optimism regarding the May 23 deadline and anticipates substantial inflows to ETH driven by ETFs, mirroring the pattern observed with BTC ETFs following their approval."We estimate that spot ETFs will drive inflows of 2.39-9.15 million ETH in the first 12 months after approval," he said in the report, which equates to roughly between $15 billion and $45 billion.Ether price could reach $8,000 by end-2024 and $14,000 by end-2025According to Kendrick, if spot Ethereum ETFs get approved in May, the price of ETH could reach $8,000 sooner than previously expected. He now anticipates the price hitting $8,000 by the end of 2024, two years earlier than he previously predicted. Kendrick has also set an ETH price target of $14,000 by the end of 2025."Specifically, we think ETH would keep pace with BTC, with the current 5.4% price ratio holding for the rest of 2024," he said in the report.Given that Standard Chartered now sees BTC reaching the $150,000 level by the end of 2024, this would imply a level of $8,000 for ETH, he said. In 2025, the bank sees the ETH-to-BTC price ratio rising back to the 7% level that prevailed for much of 2021-22. Kendrick added that his estimated BTC price level of $200,000 at the end of 2025 would imply an ETH price of $14,000.Earlier Monday, in a separate note, Standard Chartered said the bitcoin price could even reach $250,000 at some point in 2025 if strong spot bitcoin ETF inflows continue and/or forex reserve managers start buying bitcoin this year."Coincidentally, our estimated inflows for BTC and ETH are similar as a percentage of outstanding coins in circulation," Kendrick said in today's ETH report. "For BTC, our estimated inflows range from 2.2-6.7% of total coins in circulation; for ETH, the equivalent percentages are 2.0-7.6%. We are comfortable with the ETH ranges being slightly wider due to ETH's marginally higher volatility."Ethereum's Dencun upgradeEthereum's recent Dencun upgrade, which sharply lowers transaction fees on Layer 2 networks, also makes Ethereum more competitive, according to Kendrick.He expects the "bridge" category to increase in importance, given the Dencun upgrade. Kendrick also anticipates that further in the future, Ethereum's use cases will evolve towards gaming and tokenization, adding significant demand via the existing NFT and DeFi channels, respectively."Importantly, this should provide 'proof of concept' examples in which real-world industries come on-chain to exploit the benefits of Ethereum over their existing setups," he said. "We expect significant developments on these fronts by 2025-26."

13 Mar, 2024

Laos Grapples with Extreme Weather Events, Fires in 2023, Causing USD 53.5 Million Damage

Laos faced a tough year in 2023 as it battled through 76 extreme weather events and fires that caused severe damage across the country. In a recent meeting chaired by Lao Deputy Prime Minister General Chansamone Chanyalath, the extent of the havoc became clear.These disasters, including storms, floods, landslides, and wildfires, left a trail of destruction estimated at over LAK 1,114 billion (approximately USD 53.5 million).More than 107,000 households in 125 districts across 16 provinces were heavily affected by these disasters. Among them, 10 lives were lost, and 14 homes were damaged. The damage also extended to schools, hospitals, roads, and farms.One of the hardest-hit areas was the Phou Phanang National Protected Area in Vientiane Province, where a fierce forest fire took hold.In response to this climate change emergency throughout 2023, Laos is now intensifying its efforts to bolster disaster response mechanisms and enhance resilience across the nation.Central and local disaster management committees have been dedicated to enhancing crisis-response capabilities, promptly delivering emergency aid to affected families, and facilitating the restoration of flooded agricultural lands.Looking ahead, there is an evident sense of urgency to refine post-disaster recovery strategies across Laos for 2024. This issue requires a joint effort to strengthen coordination among disaster management committees, thereby optimizing readiness and responsiveness to unforeseen needs.In a proactive stride toward fortifying national disaster resilience, authorities are implementing a series of comprehensive measures. Plans are underway to establish a centralized national water resources information center, bolster meteorological and hydrological stations, and enhance earthquake monitoring capabilities. These strategic interventions suggest the government’s commitment to safeguarding lives and livelihoods and ensuring a cohesive, efficient response during times of crisis.