04 Mar, 2024

Laos Inflation Hits 25.35% in February

Laos continues to face economic challenges as inflation rates reached 25.35 percent in February, up from 24.44 percent the previous month, according to a report released by the Lao Statistics Bureau on 29 February.

The report indicates that while the overall inflation rate continues its upward trajectory, certain sectors have witnessed a slight decrease in prices.

In February, the hotel and restaurant category registered the highest price hike, standing at 35.1 percent year-on-year, a marginal decrease compared to January’s figures. Other sectors contributing to inflation include clothing and footwear, medical care and medicines, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and communications and transport, all experiencing substantial increases ranging from 22.6 to 35.1 percent.

According to the report, several factors have contributed to this surge in inflation. Firstly, increased demand during festivities such as Vietnamese and Chinese New Year has led to a rise in food prices. Secondly, soaring fuel prices, with diesel climbing by seven percent and gasoline by five percent, have exacerbated the situation. Lastly, the depreciation of the Lao kip against major currencies, including the US dollar and Thai baht, has further strained economic stability, depreciating by 1.70 percent and 0.61 percent, respectively.

In response to the challenges, the Lao government, led by Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, convened a monthly cabinet meeting from 28-29 February. The meeting aimed to address the country’s economic and financial hurdles and devise strategic plans to ensure sustained economic growth.

On 29 February, shortly after the monthly cabinet meeting, the government preliminarily approved draft laws and decrees to address economic challenges. These include laws on tourism decentralization, traditional medicine plant protection, countering money laundering, and dry ports.

To attract foreign currency into the country, the Bank of Laos (BOL) also implemented a new regulation mandating foreign investors, back in December last year, to open a Foreign Direct Investment Bank account (FDI) either in Lao Kip or a convertible foreign currency with a commercial bank to streamline the process for foreign investors looking to invest in Laos while ensuring greater transparency and accountability in capital flows.

The bank has also pledged to implement a tighter monetary policy to stabilize the kip’s value, aligning with the government’s ambitious goal of reducing inflation by 9% in 2024.

06 Mar, 2024

Electricity Exports Propel Laos to Trade Surplus, Marking Record Growth

Laos has recorded a significant surge in its annual trade, reaching a total value of over USD 15.5 billion in 2023. The figures, released by the Lao Trade Portal, highlight a 3.5 percent increase compared to the previous year. According to the data, Laos witnessed a notable rise in both export and import activities throughout 2023. The total export value amounted to approximately USD 8 billion, marking a 3.5 percent increase over 2022, while total imports surged over USD 7 billion, reflecting a 5 percent increase compared to the previous year.The top five export categories in 2023 were dominated by electricity, which accounted for USD 2.382 billion, followed by gold bullion at USD 703 million, paper and paper products at USD 467 million, gold ore at USD 425 million, and iron ore at USD 411 million. These exports signify Laos’ diverse range of products contributing to its trade portfolio.On the import front, diesel emerged as the top imported commodity, valued at USD 952 million, followed by mechanical equipment at USD 606 million, land vehicles at USD 580 million, iron and steel products at USD 451 million, and gasoline at USD 428 million. The import spectrum showcases Laos’ reliance on various goods to fuel its domestic economy and development initiatives.The country’s trade surplus surpassed USD 1 billion for the annual trade, a positive indicator amidst global economic fluctuations. Despite reporting a ten-month trade deficit in 2023, the inclusion of electricity trade at the end of the year, a significant export product, tilted the balance in Laos’ favor.Electricity exports have notably propelled Laos’ trade surplus, emphasizing the country’s increasing role in providing sustainable energy options to the region. This highlights a growing demand for renewable energy sources in Southeast Asia.In terms of trade partners, Thailand emerged as the leading export destination with USD 2.8 billion, closely followed by China, Vietnam, Australia, and Cambodia. Thailand has also claimed the top spot as Laos’ primary importing source, with USD 3.3 billion, followed by China, Vietnam, the United States, and Japan.Looking ahead, China is poised to solidify its position as Laos’ leading trading partner. Reports from state media indicate that China has invested in 17 projects totaling nearly USD 1 billion since the beginning of the year, suggesting a deepening economic relationship between the two nations.

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01 Mar, 2024

Potential Impact of Bitcoin Halving: LADT Analyst Insights

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, may face price adjustments following the upcoming halving event in April, according to analysis by JPMorgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.The halving, occurring approximately every four years, is poised to reduce miner rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. As a result, JPMorgan analysts caution that Bitcoin's price could potentially dip to $42,000 post-halving.Reasons Behind the Forecasted Decline to $42,000This potential downturn is attributed to reduced profitability for miners and subsequent increases in BTC production costs. Historically, Bitcoin's production cost has served as a "lower bound" for its prices, with the estimated range doubling post-halving to around $53,000.A potential 20% reduction in the BTC network’s hash rate looms, primarily due to less efficient mining rigs exiting the operational landscape. This scenario may drive the estimated production cost range to $42,000, calculated under an average electricity cost of $0.05 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).JPMorgan analysts anticipate that Bitcoin miners with “below-average electricity costs” and “more efficient equipment” will fare better post-halving, while those with “higher production costs” may face profitability challenges.Expected Trends in the Bitcoin Mining IndustryAnalysts foresee increased concentration within the Bitcoin mining industry, with publicly listed miners likely to hold a higher share. Additionally, the possibility of "horizontal integration" through "mergers and acquisitions" among miners across regions aims to leverage synergies and minimize collective operational expenses.Bitcoin Market Sentiments and Potential GrowthDespite JPMorgan's cautious outlook, Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, predicting a surge to $250,000 sooner than expected.Market indicators suggest a potential surge for Bitcoin. On-chain data indicates that the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has reached levels reminiscent of the huge bull run experienced in 2020, hinting at a forthcoming surge.LADT's Analysis BreakdownAt LADT, we hold our own perspective on JPMorgan's analysis of the BTC halving. Considering the assumption that people may grow weary of BTC as a narrative, it's uncertain whether institutions are prioritizing the halving narrative. Their focus seems to be on the concept of Bitcoin as a finite resource, rather than solely on the event of halving. Institutions recognize the value of Bitcoin in its scarcity, which becomes more evident with each halving cycle. While fluctuations in the values of mining companies may occur, it's imperative to acknowledge that Bitcoin itself is steadily becoming scarcer, enhancing its long-term value proposition.Is it accurate to classify BTC at $42k as a crash? This designation may be premature and overly dramatic by JPMorgan. While a decline to $42k from recent highs may seem significant, it's essential to contextualize this within the broader trajectory of Bitcoin's price history. Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations throughout its existence, and such movements are not uncommon within the cryptocurrency market. A "crash" typically implies a sudden and severe drop in value, whereas a correction or adjustment may be a more accurate characterization in this scenario.We respectfully disagree with the notion that the current situation represents a cause for alarm. Historically, every time the halving occurs, Bitcoin has not only recovered but also continued to surge in value over the long term. The perceived concerns may stem from Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD), which often accompany market fluctuations. It's crucial to maintain a broader perspective and consider Bitcoin's track record of resilience and growth despite short-term volatility.In the current market landscape, BTC trades at $63,391, marking a slight retracement from its recent peak above $64,000 – the highest level traded in the past two years.

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