01 Mar, 2024

Potential Impact of Bitcoin Halving: LADT Analyst Insights

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, may face price adjustments following the upcoming halving event in April, according to analysis by JPMorgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

The halving, occurring approximately every four years, is poised to reduce miner rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. As a result, JPMorgan analysts caution that Bitcoin's price could potentially dip to $42,000 post-halving.

Reasons Behind the Forecasted Decline to $42,000

This potential downturn is attributed to reduced profitability for miners and subsequent increases in BTC production costs. Historically, Bitcoin's production cost has served as a "lower bound" for its prices, with the estimated range doubling post-halving to around $53,000.

A potential 20% reduction in the BTC network’s hash rate looms, primarily due to less efficient mining rigs exiting the operational landscape. This scenario may drive the estimated production cost range to $42,000, calculated under an average electricity cost of $0.05 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).

JPMorgan analysts anticipate that Bitcoin miners with “below-average electricity costs” and “more efficient equipment” will fare better post-halving, while those with “higher production costs” may face profitability challenges.

Expected Trends in the Bitcoin Mining Industry

Analysts foresee increased concentration within the Bitcoin mining industry, with publicly listed miners likely to hold a higher share. Additionally, the possibility of "horizontal integration" through "mergers and acquisitions" among miners across regions aims to leverage synergies and minimize collective operational expenses.

Bitcoin Market Sentiments and Potential Growth

Despite JPMorgan's cautious outlook, Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, predicting a surge to $250,000 sooner than expected.

Market indicators suggest a potential surge for Bitcoin. On-chain data indicates that the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has reached levels reminiscent of the huge bull run experienced in 2020, hinting at a forthcoming surge.

LADT's Analysis Breakdown

At LADT, we hold our own perspective on JPMorgan's analysis of the BTC halving. Considering the assumption that people may grow weary of BTC as a narrative, it's uncertain whether institutions are prioritizing the halving narrative. Their focus seems to be on the concept of Bitcoin as a finite resource, rather than solely on the event of halving. Institutions recognize the value of Bitcoin in its scarcity, which becomes more evident with each halving cycle. While fluctuations in the values of mining companies may occur, it's imperative to acknowledge that Bitcoin itself is steadily becoming scarcer, enhancing its long-term value proposition.

Is it accurate to classify BTC at $42k as a crash? This designation may be premature and overly dramatic by JPMorgan. While a decline to $42k from recent highs may seem significant, it's essential to contextualize this within the broader trajectory of Bitcoin's price history. Bitcoin has experienced fluctuations throughout its existence, and such movements are not uncommon within the cryptocurrency market. A "crash" typically implies a sudden and severe drop in value, whereas a correction or adjustment may be a more accurate characterization in this scenario.

We respectfully disagree with the notion that the current situation represents a cause for alarm. Historically, every time the halving occurs, Bitcoin has not only recovered but also continued to surge in value over the long term. The perceived concerns may stem from Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD), which often accompany market fluctuations. It's crucial to maintain a broader perspective and consider Bitcoin's track record of resilience and growth despite short-term volatility.

In the current market landscape, BTC trades at $63,391, marking a slight retracement from its recent peak above $64,000 – the highest level traded in the past two years.

04 Mar, 2024

Laos Inflation Hits 25.35% in February

Laos continues to face economic challenges as inflation rates reached 25.35 percent in February, up from 24.44 percent the previous month, according to a report released by the Lao Statistics Bureau on 29 February.The report indicates that while the overall inflation rate continues its upward trajectory, certain sectors have witnessed a slight decrease in prices.In February, the hotel and restaurant category registered the highest price hike, standing at 35.1 percent year-on-year, a marginal decrease compared to January’s figures. Other sectors contributing to inflation include clothing and footwear, medical care and medicines, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and communications and transport, all experiencing substantial increases ranging from 22.6 to 35.1 percent.According to the report, several factors have contributed to this surge in inflation. Firstly, increased demand during festivities such as Vietnamese and Chinese New Year has led to a rise in food prices. Secondly, soaring fuel prices, with diesel climbing by seven percent and gasoline by five percent, have exacerbated the situation. Lastly, the depreciation of the Lao kip against major currencies, including the US dollar and Thai baht, has further strained economic stability, depreciating by 1.70 percent and 0.61 percent, respectively.In response to the challenges, the Lao government, led by Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, convened a monthly cabinet meeting from 28-29 February. The meeting aimed to address the country’s economic and financial hurdles and devise strategic plans to ensure sustained economic growth.On 29 February, shortly after the monthly cabinet meeting, the government preliminarily approved draft laws and decrees to address economic challenges. These include laws on tourism decentralization, traditional medicine plant protection, countering money laundering, and dry ports.To attract foreign currency into the country, the Bank of Laos (BOL) also implemented a new regulation mandating foreign investors, back in December last year, to open a Foreign Direct Investment Bank account (FDI) either in Lao Kip or a convertible foreign currency with a commercial bank to streamline the process for foreign investors looking to invest in Laos while ensuring greater transparency and accountability in capital flows.The bank has also pledged to implement a tighter monetary policy to stabilize the kip’s value, aligning with the government’s ambitious goal of reducing inflation by 9% in 2024.

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29 Feb, 2024

Bitcoin Blows Past $60K, on Track for Best Monthly Candle Since Dec. 2020

If bitcoin’s price holds on for the next day and a half, February will mark its best month in more than three years.Bitcoin (BTC) has exploded by 43.2% over the month to date, swelling from $42,560 on Feb. 1 to briefly touch $64,000 this afternoon, before retracing to $60,950 as of 1:15 pm ET.If bitcoin rides out the month at comparable prices, its February candle would almost eclipse a 47% candle set in December 2020 — the early stages of the previous bull market.February would also be the second largest green monthly candle since May 2019.Bitcoin was lost in the doldrums of a bear cycle at the time, opening the month below $5,300 to finish past $8,500 — a 62% jump. Crypto exited its winter phase over the following year.The crypto market looked far different in 2019.No BlackRock or Fidelity spot ETFs were hoovering up bitcoin faster than they’re mined, the SEC had not yet sued Ripple Labs over XRP (the third-largest crypto at the time behind Ethereum), and there were only $3 billion in tether in circulation — now there’s close to $100 billion.Another major difference was the number of bitcoin on crypto exchanges: Investors kept around 3 million BTC on trading platforms. That’s the most in bitcoin’s history per CryptoQuant, which tracks exchange wallets.Altogether, that BTC was worth about $26 billion at the time.Bitcoin holders have been pulling their coins off exchange ever since. Now, exchange reserves are on track to dip below 2 million BTC, a level not seen since December 2017 — when bitcoin had just set an all-time high of $20,000.While that’s still more than 10% of the circulating supply, one could easily add a one-third reduction in BTC on exchanges over the past five years to the seemingly bottomless pile of bullish factoids swirling around right now. It’s worth considering though that bitcoin’s price has added six multiples across that period, from under $9,000 to $62,000. So, the dollar value of all bitcoin kept on exchanges right now is about $123 billion — its highest point since April 2022. With so much dollar value locked up in bitcoin markets right now, the only real guarantee moving forward is volatility.

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